I sure haven't written much here in a long time. So what the hell: here's a nice little post I'm sure no one cares about.
I've been interested in IPv6 for a while since the vast majority of people who try to run a server for Multiplayer Map Editor fail to figure out how to forward a port. I even tried writing some instructions but the process is simply too difficult for instructions. One person who tried to follow them was tripped up when the ipconfig command returned multiple interfaces, as he also had some VPN software he was using for other games. IPv6 would solve this problem once and for all by removing the need for NAT.
However, it seems we're never going to have IPv6.
At the beginning of the year I found Google's IPv6 statistics and, at the beginning of the year it appeared to have a nice exponential curve to it. (It's since flattened out to a more linear curve.) So I took some measurements from the graph in order to calculate the exponent and determine when 100% IPv6 would occur. Ten years from now. Ten fucking years. Now that the curve has flattened out, that ten years seems optimistic.
I keep reading about how ISPs are determined to not implement carrier-grade NAT. However, I also read about how they want to use "dual stack" as their transition method. I don't think they realize that you can't have dual stack once you're out of IPv4 addresses.
The only good news I've seen are these measurements which claim that 26% of Comcast users have IPv6, and 7% of Time Warner users have IPv6. ...but if that's true, then why is Google seeing so few IPv6 connections?
The stats for this web site are similar. Since the beginning of this year, this web site has seen 575 IPv4 users and 26 IPv6 users, for an IPv6 rate of 4.3%.
One reason for the discrepancy may be that ISPs really are around 20% deployment, but that home routers purchased years ago make that IPv6 inaccessible. I remember just a few years ago routers with IPv6 support weren't available, and even the open source firmwares were dropping IPv6 support in favor of other features. Hell, even now, a quick look at walmart.com shows that IPv6 isn't a common feature.
However, I have a hard time thinking that ISPs are seriously deploying IPv6.
In October I called the cable company for some other reason and while I had them on the phone I asked about IPv6 support. The person on the phone told me that I already had it and simply had to configure it. They tried to get me to do something via Windows, but I told them that if it was there then I could find it on my own. After an hour of fucking around trying to get an IPv6 address, I looked up the cable modem and found it wasn't even IPv6 compatible.
Since Time Warner had recently increased the modem rental fee to $5.99/month, I decided to see what a new modem would cost, and found that one would pay for itself in a year. With a one year warranty, I couldn't lose. So I bought a Motorola SB6121.
However, I found I still had no IPv6. The modem even said it was running in IPv4 mode. So I called TWC again, and this time the person on the phone had no idea what IPv6 was. I'd eventually discover that the first person I spoke to was likely trying to help me set up a Teredo tunnel (which is flaky, BTW, so don't waste your time with it).
Anyway, last week the modem started giving me issues, so I called TWC and they told me it was broken. Not believing them, I took it up to my mother's house where it worked just fine. So I called them back and they sent someone out to look at the problem, but after two hours he still couldn't get it to work. So he left me with one of their modems, an SB5101 which isn't IPv6 compatible.
Why on earth are they still handing out modems that aren't IPv6 compatible? They'll just have to send someone out to replace them when they want to roll out IPv6.
Anyway, I called the manufacturer of my modem and, it wasn't easy, but I convinced them that even though it works at my mother's house it was still broken. So I should have a replacement in a week.
As for native IPv6 service, I don't expect that until 2024.